Premier League Predictions This Week: Sep 4-6

The international break is over and the Premier League is back with a full slate of ten fixtures between Friday, September 4th and Sunday, September 6th. If you're looking for Premier League predictions this week, you've landed in the right place. We've crunched the early-season numbers, looked at the betting odds, and broken down every single match so you don't have to.

The table after two rounds makes for interesting reading. Manchester City and Arsenal sit joint-top on six points with identical +4 goal differences. But look a little deeper and you'll spot Hull City in third—yes, Hull City—with a perfect record alongside Chelsea. Early days, sure, but the data suggests the promoted sides aren't here to make up the numbers.

Premier League This Week

Let's set the scene. After two matchdays, we've seen 34 goals scored across 20 games—that's 1.7 goals per game, which is actually down on last season's average. The bookmakers clearly expect that to change this week though. Across the ten fixtures, the over 2.5 goals market is priced at odds-on or near odds-on in five of them.

Key storylines to watch:

Hull City's fairytale start gets its toughest test yet when Aston Villa visit the MKM Stadium. The Tigers have won both games 2-1, showing real character. But Villa at 1.787 to win suggests the market thinks the bubble bursts here.
Manchester United are already playing catch-up. Ten points behind City after just two games is not where Erik ten Hag wanted to be. A trip to Goodison Park on Sunday looks genuinely tricky.
Chelsea's perfect start faces its first real examination at the Emirates. The Blues have won two tight games 1-0, but Arsenal have scored four and conceded none. Something has to give.

The form figures show Newcastle and Brentford as the draw specialists so far—both have one win and one draw. Meanwhile, five teams are still searching for their first win, including both Ipswich and Coventry, who face daunting trips to Liverpool and Manchester City respectively.

Midweek/Weekend Fixtures Preview

The action kicks off early this week with a Friday night special as Ipswich host Liverpool at Portman Road. That's followed by six games on Saturday—yes, six—starting with Newcastle against Bournemouth at 11:30 UTC and running through to Hull City vs Aston Villa as the late kickoff.

Sunday serves up the heavyweight double-header: Everton vs Manchester United in the early slot, followed by Arsenal vs Chelsea in what could be the defining fixture of the early season. If the Gunners win, they'll open up a six-point gap over their London rivals. If Chelsea win, the title conversation gets very interesting indeed.

The standout fixture from a neutral's perspective? Has to be Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham. Forest are unbeaten and playing with real swagger under Nuno Espirito Santo, while Spurs have quietly gone about their business. The odds have Forest as marginal favourites at 2.40, which tells you everything about how far they've come.

Match-by-Match Predictions

Ipswich vs Liverpool

Friday, Sep 04 at 19:00 UTC

Liverpool are massive favourites here at 1.50, and it's not hard to see why. Ipswich have lost both opening games without scoring, and now they face a Reds side that has looked sharp in patches. The data suggests Liverpool will dominate possession—expect something like 65-70%—and create the lion's share of chances.

Prediction: Liverpool win (78% confidence) - Expected goals: Ipswich 0.7 - 2.3 Liverpool - Over 2.5 goals probability: 58% - Both teams to score probability: 42%

Key insight: Ipswich's expected goals against across their two games is 3.1. That's relegation-level defending, and Liverpool's front three should feast on it. The only question is the margin.

Newcastle United vs Bournemouth

Saturday, Sep 05 at 11:30 UTC

This is closer than the early kickoff time suggests. Newcastle are slight favourites at 2.125, but Bournemouth at 2.95 aren't massive outsiders. The Magpies have drawn one and won one, scoring three and conceding one. Bournemouth, meanwhile, have split their opening games.

Prediction: Newcastle win (52% confidence) - Expected goals: Newcastle 1.6 - 1.1 Bournemouth - Over 2.5 goals probability: 51% - Both teams to score probability: 55%

Key insight: Newcastle's underlying numbers are solid but unspectacular. They're creating 1.8 xG per game but also conceding 1.2. Bournemouth will get chances here—the question is whether Newcastle's crowd can drag them over the line. This has draw written all over it, but we'll side with the home crowd.