UEFA Europa League Predictions This Week: Aug 20-24
The Europa League qualifying rounds are where careers are made and bankrolls are broken. This week's slate runs from Thursday, Aug 20 through Monday, Aug 24, and it's packed with mismatches, banana skins, and one particularly brutal travel schedule that the oddsmakers might not be pricing correctly.
Let's get this straight right now: if you're looking for UEFA Europa League predictions this week, you need to know that the group stage is still weeks away. These are playoff round qualifiers. The stakes are enormous—one wrong step and your European campaign is over before the leaves turn. The data suggests this is where the "big" clubs separate themselves from the pretenders, but travel, pitch quality, and motivation can flip a script faster than you think.
UEFA Europa League This Week
The standings paint a picture of a tournament in flux. CSKA Sofia sit top of their qualifying group with 10 points from 5 games, but they're far from safe. Anderlecht and Beşiktaş are perfect through three matches, which tells you they're taking this stage seriously. Benfica have a +10 goal difference in just 3 games—that's a statement of intent if I've ever seen one.
But here's the thing about this stage of the competition: form figures from domestic leagues don't always translate. Red Bull Salzburg have stumbled to 4 points from 2 games, which is far below their usual standard. Ferencvarosi TC are unbeaten but drawing too much—3 games, 5 points, only +1 goal difference. That's a team that's going to get punished if they don't sharpen up.
The big storyline this week? Travel. Kairat Almaty hosting Anderlecht is a 5,000+ kilometer journey for the Belgian side. That's the kind of trip that wrecks legs and minds. Meanwhile, Benfica get a home tie against Danish side Aarhus, which is the kind of fixture the Portuguese giants should win comfortably. The numbers point to a few blowouts this week, but also a couple of sneaky draws that will catch casual bettors off guard.
Midweek/Weekend Fixtures Preview
The schedule runs Thursday through Monday, with the bulk of matches on Thursday afternoon and evening. The standout fixtures are:
- Kairat Almaty vs Anderlecht (Thursday, 15:00 UTC)—the travel nightmare game
- Trabzonspor vs Ferencvarosi TC (Thursday, 17:00 UTC)—two in-form sides collide
- Benfica vs Aarhus (Thursday, 19:00 UTC)—the heavyweight vs the underdog
- FK Crvena Zvezda vs Plzen (Thursday, 18:00 UTC)—a genuine coin-flip with European pedigree on both sides
There's also Beşiktaş hosting Kauno Žalgiris, which should be a procession, and Lech Poznan welcoming FC Thun. The Polish side have 6 points from 2 games and look sharp. Don't sleep on Mjallby AIF vs Red Bull Salzburg either—Salzburg are favourites but the Swedish side are no pushovers at home.
Match-by-Match Predictions
Kairat Almaty vs Anderlecht
The setup: Anderlecht are perfect through 3 games with a +4 goal difference. Kairat are the underdogs at home with odds of 3.45 for the win. The Belgian side are priced at 2.025, which feels short given the travel.
The analysis: Here's the thing—Kazakhstan in August is brutal. The travel alone is a nightmare, and the artificial pitch at Almaty's stadium is a genuine equalizer. Anderlecht are the better side on paper, but the data suggests home teams in these Central Asian qualifiers outperform their expected metrics. Expected goals for Anderlecht should be around 1.4, but I'd knock that down to 1.1 given the fatigue factor. Kairat will sit deep and try to nick a set-piece goal.
The call: Anderlecht win, but it's closer than the odds suggest. Anderlecht to win @ 2.025 with 58% confidence. Under 2.5 goals looks like the sharp play here—the travel will slow the game down.
Jagiellonia vs Iberia 1999
The setup: Jagiellonia are massive favourites at 1.356, with the draw at 4.85 and the away side at 7.875.
The analysis: This is a mismatch. Jagiellonia have been flying in domestic competition, and Iberia 1999 are exactly the kind of side that gets exposed at this level. The Polish side should dominate possession and create chance after chance. Expected goals for Jagiellonia around 2.3, with Iberia struggling to get above 0.6. The only question is whether Jagiellonia get complacent.
The call: Jagiellonia to win with 82% confidence. Also like Jagiellonia -1.5 at plus money. This could easily be 3-0 or 4-0.
Mjallby AIF vs Red Bull Salzburg
The setup: No odds provided, but Salzburg are the clear favourites on paper. They've got 4 points from 2 games and need to start asserting themselves.
The analysis: Mjallby are a solid Swedish side who will make this difficult. They'll defend deep, stay compact, and try to hit on the counter. Salzburg have the quality to break them down, but their form has been patchy—only +1 goal difference in their group games. The data suggests Salzburg should create around 1.8 expected goals, but Mjallby at home are dangerous. Swedish teams in European qualifiers are notoriously stubborn.
The call: Salzburg to win with 62% confidence. But don't touch the handicap. This is a grind-it-out 1-0 or 2-1 kind of game.
Universitatea Craiova vs Ararat-Armenia
The setup: Craiova have 4 points from 2 games and are unbeaten. Ararat-Armenia are the visitors.
The analysis: Romanian sides are usually strong at home, and Craiova have been solid defensively. The data suggests they'll control this game, with expected goals around 1.7 to Ararat's 0.8. The Armenian side will look to frustrate and maybe nick a goal on the break.
The call: Craiova to win with 65% confidence. This is a value spot if you can get them at better than 1.80.
Trabzonspor vs Ferencvarosi TC
The setup: Trabzonspor are favourites at 1.627, with the draw at 4.0 and Ferencvaros at 4.85. Over 2.5 goals is priced at 1.69.
The analysis: This is the most intriguing fixture of the day. Trabzonspor have been inconsistent domestically, but they're usually a different beast in Europe. Ferencvaros are unbeaten in the group stage but drawing too many games. The data points to goals here—both teams create chances, and neither defence is particularly solid. Expected goals for Trabzonspor around 1.6, Ferencvaros around 1.2.
The call: Trabzonspor to win with 60% confidence. Also like Over 2.5 goals @ 1.69—this one has 0-0 written all over it, but the attacking quality on both sides suggests otherwise.
Beşiktaş vs Kauno Žalgiris
The setup: Beşiktaş are perfect through 3 games with a +4 goal difference. Kauno Žalgiris are massive underdogs.
The analysis: This is a mismatch of epic proportions. Beşiktaş should dominate from start to finish. Expected goals around 2.5 for the home side, with Kauno Žalgiris struggling to get above 0.4. The only question is rotation—will Beşiktaş rest key players ahead of domestic duties?
The call: Beşiktaş to win with 88% confidence. If you can get Beşiktaş -1.5 at decent odds, take it. This is a 3-0 or 4-0 waiting to happen.
Lech Poznan vs FC Thun
The setup: Lech Poznan are favourites at 1.607, with the draw at 4.05 and Thun at 4.95. Over 2.5 goals is at 1.69.
The analysis: Lech have been flying—6 points from 2 games with a +6 goal difference. They're scoring for fun. Thun are a decent Swiss side, but they're not in the same class. The data suggests Lech will create around 2.0 expected goals, and given their recent form, they should convert a decent chunk of those chances.
The call: Lech Poznan to win with 72% confidence. Also like Over 2.5 goals @ 1.69—Lech's attack is in full flow right now.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs Lillestrom
The setup: No odds provided. Egnatia are the Albanian side, Lillestrom the Norwegian visitors.
The analysis: This is a tricky one. Albanian sides are tough at home, and Egnatia will make this physical. Lillestrom have quality but can be bullied in these environments. The data suggests a low-scoring, scrappy affair. Expected goals around 1.0 for each side.
The call: Draw or Lillestrom narrow win with 50% confidence. This is a stay-away game for betting purposes. Too many unknowns.
OFI vs CSKA Sofia
The setup: CSKA Sofia top their group with 10 points from 5 games. OFI are the Greek hosts.
The analysis: CSKA Sofia have been the surprise package of the qualifiers so far. They've got a +3 goal difference and have been grinding out results. OFI are a solid Greek side, but they're up against a team that's clearly in form. The data suggests CSKA will be happy to sit deep and hit on the counter.
The call: CSKA Sofia double chance (draw or win) with 55% confidence. This could easily end 1-1 or 2-1 to the visitors.
St. Truiden vs Omonia Nicosia
The setup: No odds provided. St. Truiden are the Belgian hosts, Omonia the Cypriot visitors.
The analysis: Belgian sides are usually strong at home, and St. Truiden have been decent. Omonia are experienced in European competition but have been inconsistent. The data suggests St. Truiden will edge this one, with expected goals around 1.5 to Omonia's 1.0.
The call: St. Truiden to win with 58% confidence. A tight game, but the home advantage should tell.
FK Crvena Zvezda vs Plzen
The setup: Crvena Zvezda are favourites at 1.69, with the draw at 3.85 and Plzen at 4.45. Over 2.5 goals is at 1.69.
The analysis: This is a proper European tie. Crvena Zvezda are always strong at home—the atmosphere in Belgrade is genuinely intimidating. Plzen are a solid Czech side who won't be fazed. The data suggests goals here: both teams attack, and both defences have weaknesses. Expected goals around 1.7 for Zvezda, 1.1 for Plzen.
The call: Crvena Zvezda to win with 64% confidence. Also like Over 2.5 goals @ 1.69—this has the feel of a 2-1 or 3-1 game.
Benfica vs Aarhus
The setup: Benfica are the clear favourites at home. They've got a +10 goal difference in 3 games.
The analysis: This is the biggest mismatch of the week. Benfica are in ruthless form, and Aarhus are a mid-table Danish side who will struggle to cope with the pace and quality of the Portuguese attack. Expected goals for Benfica around 2.8, with Aarhus lucky to get above 0.5. This could be a cricket score.
The call: Benfica to win with 90% confidence. If you're feeling brave, Benfica -2.5 is the play. This is a 4-0 or 5-0 waiting to happen.
Top Picks of the Week
Here are the three bets I'm most confident about this week:
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Benfica to win @ 1.30 (90% confidence) — The Portuguese giants are in devastating form, and Aarhus simply don't have the quality to compete. This is the safest bet of the week.
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Jagiellonia to win @ 1.356 (82% confidence) — A complete mismatch against Iberia 1999. Jagiellonia are flying and should win comfortably.
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Beşiktaş to win @ 1.40 (88% confidence)