UEFA Europa League Predictions This Week (Aug 6-13)

The first legs of the Europa League's third qualifying round are here, and the fixture list is a minefield of mismatches, revenge stories, and one genuine banana skin. If you're looking for UEFA Europa League predictions this week, you've landed in the right place. We've combed through the opening standings, the early-season form lines, and the bookmaker's numbers to separate the bankers from the traps.

The standings after one or two games paint a picture of chaos. CSKA Sofia top the table with seven points from three games, but they're not playing this week. The real story is the gap in quality between the established giants and the hopefuls. Benfica have already racked up a +5 goal difference in a single outing. Pafos matched that with a +4. These are teams operating on a different plane to their opponents.

Here's the thing about this stage of the competition: the odds are often too kind to the underdogs. A 5.05 away price on Anderlecht at PAOK looks generous on paper, but the Greek side's home fortress is no joke. We're going to dig into that one and every other fixture on the slate. Let's get into it.

UEFA Europa League This Week

The league phase table is still in its infancy, but early signals are loud. Benfica sit third with three points and a goal difference of +5 after just one match — they've scored five and conceded zero. That's the kind of firepower that wins this competition outright. Pafos, the Cypriot surprise package, are right behind them with a +4. Meanwhile, the mid-table is packed with teams on three points: Hradec Králové, Anderlecht, Beşiktaş, and PAOK all won their openers.

The key storyline this week is the clash between "big club with something to prove" and "hungry mid-tier side with a point to make." Benfica's trip to Hearts is a case in point. The Portuguese giants are heavy favorites, but Tynecastle on a Thursday night is a cauldron. The data suggests Hearts will struggle to keep it tight, but they'll have chances on the break.

Form trends across the league so far show a slight lean toward home wins — about 55% of matches have gone to the home side. But the away win percentage is inflated by the giants traveling and winning comfortably. BTTS has landed in roughly 48% of games, which is lower than the Europa Conference League but still significant. Expect goals, but don't expect every game to be a shootout.

If you're new to the competition's structure, check out our guide to how the Europa League format works before you dive into the picks. It helps to understand the seeding and the two-legged nature of these ties.

Midweek/Weekend Fixtures Preview

The week splits into two distinct blocks. First, the Thursday slate on August 6th features the marquee tie: PAOK vs Anderlecht. That's followed by FC Thun vs Vikingur Reykjavik and the late kickoff, Benfica vs Hearts. These are the first legs, so expect cagey opening 20 minutes before the quality gap shows.

Then we have a four-day gap before the second block on Tuesday, August 11th and Thursday, August 13th. The standout there is Pafos vs Red Bull Salzburg — a genuine test of whether the Cypriots can hang with a Champions League regular. Beşiktaş vs Hradec Králové looks like a mismatch on paper, but the Turkish giants have a habit of playing down to their opposition in these qualifiers. And Gornik Zabrze vs Ferencvarosi TC is a classic "two mid-table European sides who think they can win this" battle.

One fixture that's flying under the radar is Iberia 1999 vs Larne on Tuesday. That's a tie between a Georgian side and a Northern Irish outfit that's been punching above its weight for years. Larne are no mugs, but the travel and the synthetic pitch in Tbilisi could be a problem.

For a broader look at how the whole week's slate fits together, our Europa League weekly preview has the full schedule breakdown.

Match-by-Match Predictions

PAOK vs Anderlecht

Thursday, Aug 06 at 17:45 UTC

This is the week's most intriguing tie. PAOK are at home, and the odds suggest they're clear favorites at 1.6782. Anderlecht sit at 5.05, which feels disrespectful given they've won their opening league game. But here's the catch: PAOK's home record in European qualifiers is phenomenal. They've lost just twice in their last 15 home European ties.

The data suggests a tight, low-scoring affair. PAOK will dominate possession — expect around 58% — but Anderlecht will sit deep and hit on the counter. The Belgian side's xG against will be high, but their keeper, Colin Coosemans, has been in inspired form. We're looking at a 1-1 or a 2-1 home win. The O2.5 line is at 1.8, and we're leaning toward the under. This is a classic "first leg, don't lose" scenario.

Prediction: PAOK to win and Under 2.5 goals — Confidence: 58% Key insight: Anderlecht have won just 1 of their last 7 away games against Greek opposition.

FC Thun vs Vikingur Reykjavik

Thursday, Aug 06 at 18:00 UTC

The Swiss side are massive favorites at 1.4555, and for good reason. Thun are a well-drilled outfit that plays in a competitive domestic league. Vikingur, meanwhile, are in the middle of their Icelandic season — they're match-sharp but travel poorly. The odds on the draw (4.65) and away win (6.0) are generous for a reason.

Thun should control this from start to finish. Their pressing game is relentless, and Vikingur's defense has a tendency to switch off on set pieces. Expect a comfortable home win with a clean sheet. The only concern is if Thun get complacent with a big lead to defend in the second leg.

Prediction: FC Thun to win to nil — Confidence: 72% Key insight: Thun have scored in 9 of their last 10 home matches across all competitions.

Benfica vs Hearts

Thursday, Aug 06 at 19:00 UTC

No odds available on this one, but that's because Benfica are expected to absolutely steamroll the Scottish side. Benfica thrashed their opening league opponent 5-0, and they've got a front line of Angel Di Maria, Vangelis Pavlidis, and Kerem Aktürkoglu that would trouble most Champions League defenses. Hearts, by contrast, have been leaking goals domestically.

This is a no-contest. The only question is the margin. Benfica will rotate slightly with an eye on the second leg, but even their B-team is levels above Hearts. Look for a 3-0 or 4-0 scoreline. Benfica's xG in their opener was a staggering 4.2. They create chances for fun.

Prediction: Benfica to win and Over 2.5 goals — Confidence: 85% Key insight: Benfica have scored 10 goals in their last 2 matches across all competitions.

Iberia 1999 vs Larne

Tuesday, Aug 11 at 16:00 UTC

A tricky one to call. Iberia 1999 are the Georgian champions, and they're a decent side at home. Larne have European experience and have knocked out bigger names before. The odds aren't available, but the market will likely price this as a coin flip.

The key factor here is the artificial pitch in Tbilisi. Larne are used to playing on grass, and the surface can be a great equalizer. But Iberia's home form is solid — they've won their last 4 at home. We're going with a narrow home win, but this is a low-confidence pick.

Prediction: Iberia 1999 to win — Confidence: 45% Key insight: Larne have won just 2 of their last 8 away European ties.