Prediction

Analysis

Chelsea roll into this one with a 59% win probability per the model, and the head-to-head record is brutally one-sided: across the last five meetings, it’s five wins, zero draws, zero losses from the home side’s perspective. That dominance matters, but form tells a trickier story. Chelsea’s last five league outings read WWLWL—good but spiky, with that away loss and a home defeat interrupting the wins. Hull, meanwhile, are unbeaten in five, posting WWWWD, which is genuine momentum even if the level of opposition hasn’t been elite.

The model gives Hull just a 20% chance of taking all three points, and the draw sits at 21%, so Chelsea are clear favorites. Still, the visitors’ unbeaten run suggests they won’t roll over. Chelsea’s home form in that sequence shows a win, a loss, and another win—so Stamford Bridge hasn’t been a fortress lately. Hull’s five-match unbeaten streak includes three wins and two draws, signaling they’ve learned to grind out results, which could frustrate a Chelsea side that’s prone to lapses.

With no xG data available, we lean on the raw numbers: Chelsea’s historical stranglehold in this fixture is the strongest signal, but Hull’s current resilience is the counterweight. A 59-21-20 split reflects that Chelsea should win, but not by a landslide—think a tight, controlled victory rather than a rout. If Hull nick an early goal, that 20% away chance suddenly feels very live.

Recent Form

Head to Head

• Hull City 0-4 Chelsea
• Hull City 0-4 Chelsea
• Hull City 1-2 Chelsea
• Chelsea 4-0 Hull City
• Chelsea 2-0 Hull City

Key Statistics

League Standing