Prediction

Analysis

Corinthians enter this one looking to steady a rocky stretch, having lost three of their last five (LLLDW), though that lone win does provide a small pulse of momentum. The model gives them a firm 62% win probability, largely because their home floor has historically been a fortress against this specific opponent. In the last head-to-head meeting, the sides played to a draw, but that’s just one sample—and from the home perspective, Corinthians have not lost to Chapecoense in that span (0W 1D 0L). Still, the form chart is concerning: their attack has been sputtering, and they can’t rely on a clean sheet given how often they’ve conceded during this poor run.

Chapecoense arrive mired in their own inconsistency, posting LWDLL away from home — a sequence that shows flashes (one win, one draw) but far more fragility. Their away form suggests they’ll sit deep and try to nick something on the counter, but with a 14% win probability and only 24% on the draw, the numbers imply they’ll struggle to impose themselves. The model’s lean toward a home win (62%) aligns with the broader quality gap, yet Corinthians’ recent defensive wobbles mean this isn’t a foregone conclusion. If Chapecoense can replicate the resilience they showed in that last H2H draw, they might frustrate the hosts again — but the expected outcome, per the projection, is that Corinthians grind out three points despite their patchy rhythm. No xG data exists to refine that read, so we’re leaning on raw results and the probability split, which clearly favors the home side.

Recent Form

Head to Head

• Chapecoense-sc 0-0 Corinthians

Key Statistics

League Standing