Prediction

Analysis

Coritiba come into this one with real momentum, riding a WWDWL stretch that shows a side grinding out results even when they wobble. That lone loss is sandwiched between two wins, and at home they’ll fancy their chances against a Mirassol side stuck in a miserable DDLDL rut. The visitors haven’t won in five, and their away form suggests they’re leaking confidence—three draws and two defeats in that run points to a team that competes but can’t close games out.

The head-to-head is thin, with just one prior meeting, and that went Coritiba’s way—a clean win from the home perspective. That’s not a huge sample, but it does add a psychological edge for the hosts, especially given Mirassol’s current slide. The model’s prediction mirrors the form gap: Coritiba are favored at 42%, with the draw at 31% and Mirassol’s upset chances sitting at only 27%. That leaves plenty of room for a stalemate, honestly—Mirassol’s draws are as frequent as their losses, so parking the bus isn’t out of the question.

Still, the numbers point to Coritiba controlling the tempo. They’ve been more reliable in recent weeks, while Mirassol’s inability to turn draws into wins is a glaring red flag. If Coritiba can break through early, the visitors’ fragile confidence could crack. Without detailed xG data, we lean on the raw form and that head-to-head marker—both favor the home side, though the 42% isn’t overwhelming. Expect a tight, scrappy contest where Coritiba’s edge in quality and momentum nudges them over the line, but don’t be shocked if Mirassol grind out another draw to keep their

Recent Form

Head to Head

• Mirassol 0-1 Coritiba

Key Statistics

League Standing