Prediction

Analysis

Frosinone enter this one as the clear favorite, and the form table backs that up with a sharp home-side edge. They’ve won four of their last five (WLWWW), while Venezia’s recent run is choppier at LLWDW — two losses, a draw, and two wins, but not the sustained momentum you’d want on the road. The model’s probabilities reflect that gap: 54% for a home win versus just 24% for Venezia, with the draw at 22%. So this isn’t a coin flip; it’s a home-leaning matchup where Frosinone’s consistency should carry weight.

Head-to-head history complicates the picture slightly, though. Over the last five meetings, the home team has won only twice and lost three times (2W 0D 3L from the home perspective), which suggests Venezia have historically been a tricky opponent regardless of form. That’s a real wrinkle — it means Frosinone’s current edge isn’t historically bulletproof, and Venezia’s two recent wins in that run show they can punish a passive host. But those H2H results predate the current form dip for Venezia, so I’d lean more on the present trajectory.

Without detailed xG data, I’m not going to pretend I can dissect shot quality here. What the numbers do tell me is straightforward: Frosinone are winning games at a higher clip, they’re at home, and the prediction model gives them a clear majority share of outcomes. Venezia need a major upset — their away form (one win in five) doesn’t scream breakthrough. Expect Frosinone to control tempo, but don’t be shocked if Venezia snatch a point given the H2H hicc

Recent Form

Head to Head

• Frosinone 1-2 Venezia
• Frosinone 1-2 Venezia
• Venezia 3-0 Frosinone
• Frosinone 3-0 Venezia
• Venezia 1-3 Frosinone

Key Statistics

League Standing