Prediction

Analysis

Heerenveen come into this one as clear underdogs, and the numbers back that up. Their last five league matches read DLDWL—a run with just one win and two losses, which suggests they’re struggling to find consistency. AZ, meanwhile, are on a tear: WWWWD, meaning four wins and a draw from their last five, without a single defeat. The model’s prediction is stark—20% for the home side, 17% for the draw, and a hefty 63% for AZ—so this isn’t a coin flip by any stretch.

Head-to-head form doesn’t offer Heerenveen much comfort either. Over the last five meetings, the home perspective shows AZ winning three times, with Heerenveen taking only two. That’s a narrow edge for the visitors historically, but combined with current form, it tilts further. Heerenveen’s inconsistency—two draws and two losses in that stretch—suggests they’ll need a sharp defensive display to stay in this, especially since AZ have been rolling through opponents.

I’m not going to pretend we have detailed expected-goals data here, because we don’t—those numbers aren’t available for this matchup. So the read has to lean on results and trajectory. AZ’s ability to win away from home, plus their momentum, makes the 63% projection feel credible. Heerenveen’s best hope is a low-scoring grind, but given they’ve only managed one win in five, the burden is on them to prove the odds wrong. It’s hard to see anything but a comfortable AZ victory if they play anywhere near their recent level.

Recent Form

Head to Head

• AZ Alkmaar 3-0 Heerenveen
• Heerenveen 3-1 AZ Alkmaar
• AZ Alkmaar 4-1 Heerenveen
• Heerenveen 3-1 AZ Alkmaar
• AZ Alkmaar 9-1 Heerenveen

Key Statistics

League Standing