Prediction

Analysis

Liverpool come into this one in a strange spot—winless in their last five league matches, with three draws and two defeats, which is hardly title form. That run, though, has to be weighed against the head-to-head edge they hold over Fulham: in the last five meetings between these sides, Liverpool have won twice, drawn twice, and lost just once. So while the recent form line is alarming, the matchup itself has tended to favor the hosts, and that history matters when you’re trying to separate noise from signal.

Fulham, meanwhile, have been even more inconsistent away from home, with a record of just one win in their last five on the road (LLWDL). Their lone victory in that stretch shows they can grind out a result, but the broader pattern points to a side that struggles to impose themselves away from Craven Cottage. Given Liverpool’s home advantage and that head-to-head resilience, the model’s numbers aren’t hard to understand: it gives the hosts a 65% chance to win, with a draw at 16% and an away upset at 19%.

What’s interesting is the gap between Liverpool’s current performances and the model’s confidence in them. A 65% projection suggests the underlying quality is still clearly on their side, but with three draws in five, they’ve been leaving points on the table. If Fulham can nick an early goal, that 19% might feel very live—but on the balance of form, history, and the model’s lean, the rational read is that Liverpool finally turn a dominant probability into three points.

Recent Form

Head to Head

• Liverpool 2-0 Fulham
• Fulham 2-2 Liverpool
• Fulham 3-2 Liverpool
• Liverpool 2-2 Fulham
• Fulham 1-3 Liverpool

Key Statistics

League Standing