Prediction

Analysis

**Retrospective: Manchester City 2-1 Bournemouth**

Our pre-match model strongly favoured the hosts, handing Manchester City a 67% win probability against Bournemouth’s 13%, and the final 2-1 scoreline validated that call. City’s patchy form (LDWWW) had shown signs of stabilising, and their historical dominance in this fixture—three wins in the last five meetings—provided a solid foundation. Bournemouth’s stubborn run of draws (DDWWD) suggested they would be difficult to break down, but ultimately they lacked the cutting edge to overturn City’s quality at the Etihad. The victory was deserved on balance of play and territorial control, even without granular shot-quality data.

Bournemouth will take heart from their spirited performance, briefly levelling the contest before City’s superior depth and attacking variation told. For City, this was a return to winning ways after earlier stumbles, reinforcing the model’s confidence in their ceiling. The away side’s 20% draw probability never truly materialised as a threat, and our prediction of a home win was comfortably correct. This result keeps City’s momentum alive while Bournemouth’s winless streak persists, though their resilience remains a useful marker for future fixtures.

Recent Form

Head to Head

• Bournemouth 1-1 Manchester City FC
• Manchester City FC 3-1 Bournemouth
• Manchester City FC 3-1 Bournemouth
• Bournemouth 1-2 Manchester City FC
• Bournemouth 2-1 Manchester City FC

Key Statistics

League Standing