Prediction

Analysis

Let’s start with the form table, because it tells a clear story. Greuther Fürth’s WLDWL run is a rollercoaster—they’ve alternated wins and losses with a draw mixed in, which suggests inconsistency rather than a stable defensive shell. Heidenheim, meanwhile, are in a WLWLW pattern, but critically, they’ve won their last two matches and finished that sequence on a high. The model’s prediction is stark: only 26% for the home side, 25% for the draw, and a full 49% for Heidenheim. That’s almost a coin-flip advantage for the visitors, and it’s hard to argue against it when you weigh recent momentum.

There’s no head-to-head data to lean on—no recent meetings between these clubs—so we’re forced to judge them on how they’ve performed against their own recent schedules. Heidenheim’s alternating pattern actually flatters them more than Fürth’s, because their losses are mixed with strong responses, while Fürth’s wins look more isolated. Without xG to separate luck from creation, the form sequence alone tells you Heidenheim are trending up and Fürth are stuck in a binary cycle. If you extrapolate their last three games, Fürth failed to win two of those, while Heidenheim won two of theirs.

The bottom line: Heidenheim’s away form (even with a loss in that run) carries more weight than Fürth’s home inconsistency. The model’s 49% away probability isn’t a fluke—it reflects that Heidenheim are the steadier side right now. Fürth’s 26% suggests they need a perfect performance to flip the script, and their form says that’s not their usual output. I’d

Recent Form

Head to Head

No recent head-to-head data.

Key Statistics

League Standing