Prediction

Analysis

Tottenham’s recent form reads like a team searching for traction: LLWLD, with just one win in their last five across all competitions. That lone victory is a fragile foundation, and their underlying issue is consistency—they’ve alternated between flat losses and spirited draws, but they haven’t strung together back-to-back positive results. Everton, meanwhile, aren’t much better on paper with DWLLD, but that away draw pattern hints at stubbornness rather than collapse. The key contrast here is that while Spurs have lost three of five, Everton have only lost twice, and their two draws suggest a defensive base that travels reasonably well.

Historically, this fixture leans toward the home side—Spurs have won three of the last five head-to-head meetings, with one draw and one Everton victory. But past dominance doesn’t erase current form, and the model’s prediction is stark: it gives Everton a 52% win probability, against just 23% for Tottenham and 25% for a draw. That is a significant away lean, which is unusual for a Premier League match at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. The head-to-head record suggests Spurs can win this, but their recent results—and Everton’s relative resilience in picking up draws—point to the visitors being the safer side. Without detailed xG data, you have to lean on the raw win/loss patterns: Tottenham look fragile when pressed, while Everton’s three points from their last two away games (a win and a draw) give them momentum that Spurs simply lack. I’d expect a tight, low-scoring affair, but the percentages favor the Toffees nicking something—likely a draw at worst, or a narrow win if they exploit Spurs’ defensive lapses.

Recent Form

Head to Head

• Tottenham Hot… 1-0 Everton
• Everton 0-3 Tottenham Hot…
• Everton 3-2 Tottenham Hot…
• Tottenham Hot… 4-0 Everton
• Everton 2-2 Tottenham Hot…

Key Statistics

League Standing