Canada, Mexico & United States · 2026-06-11 → 2026-07-19
World Cup 2026 Predictions Beta
Our Monte-Carlo model simulates all 104 matches of the first 48-team FIFA World Cup. Below: the projected winner, the full 32-team knockout bracket, title contenders, and group-by-group qualification projections. Early-stage — see the note below.
Projected winner · beta
Argentina
Beta — early projections from team-strength priors (FIFA-ranking-based), not a forecast. The model improves as the qualified field and results are confirmed.
Last simulated: 2026-06-03T18:22:18.104562
Title Contenders (beta)
| Team | Champion | Reach Final | Reach SF |
|---|---|---|---|
Argentina |
20% | 20% | 31% |
France |
17% | 17% | 28% |
England |
12% | 12% | 21% |
Spain |
11% | 11% | 20% |
Brazil |
7% | 7% | 14% |
Portugal |
7% | 7% | 14% |
Netherlands |
5% | 5% | 11% |
Belgium |
5% | 5% | 12% |
Germany |
3% | 3% | 7% |
Colombia |
2% | 2% | 6% |
Predicted Bracket
R32
CZE
CAN
GER
SOU
NET
MOR
BRA
JAP
FRA
EGY
ECU
SEN
MEX
NOR
ENG
ALG
R16
GER
FRA
CAN
NET
BRA
SEN
MEX
ENG
QF
FRA
NET
SPA
BEL
SF
FRA
SPA
FINAL
FRA
ARG
🏆 ARG
SF
ENG
ARG
QF
BRA
ENG
ARG
COL
R16
POR
SPA
USA
BEL
ARG
IRA
SWI
COL
R32
USA
IVO
BEL
CAP
POR
CRO
SPA
AUS
SWI
SWE
ARG
URU
COL
AUS
TUR
IRA
Group Projections
Group A
-
Mexico winner
94%
-
Czech Republic
74%
-
South Korea
72%
-
South Africa
34%
Group B
-
Switzerland winner
96%
-
Canada
83%
-
Bosnia & Herzegovina
56%
-
Qatar
37%
Group C
-
Brazil winner
97%
-
Morocco
82%
-
Scotland
59%
-
Haiti
30%
Group D
-
USA winner
94%
-
Türkiye
77%
-
Australia
56%
-
Paraguay
44%
Group E
-
Germany winner
97%
-
Ecuador
84%
-
Ivory Coast
56%
-
Curaçao
32%
Group F
-
Netherlands winner
96%
-
Japan
70%
-
Sweden
53%
-
Tunisia
49%
Group G
-
Belgium winner
98%
-
Iran
74%
-
Egypt
62%
-
New Zealand
33%
Group H
-
Spain winner
97%
-
Uruguay
92%
-
Cape Verde Islands
46%
-
Saudi Arabia
28%
Group I
-
France winner
98%
-
Senegal
72%
-
Norway
62%
-
Iraq
32%
Group J
-
Argentina winner
99%
-
Austria
69%
-
Algeria
57%
-
Jordan
37%
Group K
-
Portugal winner
96%
-
Colombia
93%
-
Congo DR
46%
-
Uzbekistan
28%
Group L
-
England winner
99%
-
Croatia
69%
-
Ghana
49%
-
Panama
46%
Golden Boot Race
Top-scorer projection coming soon.
Dark Horses
Surprise-team picks coming soon.
Make your own World Cup 2026 bracket
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