Canada, Mexico & United States · 2026-06-11 → 2026-07-19
World Cup 2026 Predictions Beta
Our Monte-Carlo model simulates all 104 matches of the first 48-team FIFA World Cup. Below: the projected winner, the full 32-team knockout bracket, title contenders, and group-by-group qualification projections. Early-stage — see the note below.
Projected winner · beta
Argentina
Beta — early projections from team-strength priors (FIFA-ranking-based), not a forecast. The model improves as the qualified field and results are confirmed.
Last simulated: 2026-07-20T13:20:22.631453
Title Contenders (beta)
| Team | Champion | Reach Final | Reach SF |
|---|---|---|---|
Argentina |
28% | 28% | 44% |
France |
15% | 15% | 28% |
England |
11% | 11% | 21% |
Spain |
11% | 11% | 20% |
Brazil |
8% | 8% | 15% |
Portugal |
5% | 5% | 12% |
Netherlands |
5% | 5% | 11% |
Belgium |
4% | 4% | 10% |
Germany |
3% | 3% | 8% |
Colombia |
2% | 2% | 5% |
Predicted Bracket
R32
SOU
BOS
GER
CAN
NET
MOR
BRA
SWE
FRA
JAP
IVO
NOR
MEX
SEN
ENG
ALG
R16
GER
FRA
BOS
NET
BRA
NOR
MEX
ENG
QF
FRA
NET
SPA
BEL
SF
FRA
SPA
FINAL
FRA
ARG
🏆 ARG
SF
ENG
ARG
QF
BRA
ENG
ARG
COL
R16
CRO
SPA
USA
BEL
ARG
AUS
SWI
COL
R32
USA
ECU
BEL
SAU
CON
CRO
SPA
AUS
SWI
IRA
ARG
CAP
COL
GHA
AUS
EGY
Group Projections
Group A
-
South Africa winner
100%
-
Mexico
100%
-
South Korea
0%
-
Czechia
0%
Group B
-
Canada winner
100%
-
Switzerland
100%
-
Bosnia & Herzegovina
100%
-
Qatar
0%
Group C
-
Brazil winner
100%
-
Morocco
100%
-
Haiti
0%
-
Scotland
0%
Group D
-
Paraguay winner
100%
-
Australia
100%
-
USA
100%
-
Türkiye
0%
Group E
-
Ecuador winner
100%
-
Ivory Coast
100%
-
Germany
100%
-
Curaçao
0%
Group F
-
Netherlands winner
100%
-
Sweden
100%
-
Japan
100%
-
Tunisia
0%
Group G
-
Egypt winner
100%
-
Belgium
100%
-
New Zealand
0%
-
Iran
0%
Group H
-
Spain winner
100%
-
Cape Verde Islands
100%
-
Saudi Arabia
0%
-
Uruguay
0%
Group I
-
Norway winner
100%
-
France
100%
-
Senegal
100%
-
Iraq
0%
Group J
-
Algeria winner
100%
-
Argentina
100%
-
Austria
100%
-
Jordan
0%
Group K
-
Congo DR winner
100%
-
Portugal
100%
-
Colombia
100%
-
Uzbekistan
0%
Group L
-
Ghana winner
100%
-
Croatia
100%
-
England
100%
-
Panama
0%
Golden Boot Race
Top-scorer projection coming soon.
Dark Horses
Surprise-team picks coming soon.
Make your own World Cup 2026 bracket
Pick every winner — including the best third-placed teams — score your bracket against the AI, and share it with friends.
Build your bracket →